Analysts and fund managers around the world make good money predicting the future. They use numerous different strategies and models, some quantitative, some qualitative, some based on comparison, others not. The list goes on. Today I’m focusing on understanding the future by comparison. Often we assume that if companies in the United States are doing something then it must be cutting edge. That’s because there’s a lot of innovation coming out of the US, but not all innovation comes out of the US. The head of PWC’s Asia & Pacific Consumer Markets had a great quote about this in their Global Consumer Insights Survey The quote is below, and the bolding is mine.
“In August of last year Amazon announced it was buying Whole Foods and, as many investment analysts and retail leaders rushed to make sense of the deal, USD 11.6 billion was wiped off the market value of other competitor grocery retailers in just under 24 hours. Those in the US may have been left surprised by this move that shouldn’t be the case. The strategy of internet giants acquiring offline retailers was already happening in China. The future of global retail is happening here now. “
If any analysts were watching the Chinese retail landscape as a harbinger of what might occur in the US, they might have profited handsomely. The Chinese retailer sector outpaces the US retail sector in innovation. But it’s not the only sector in the world which leads its American equivalent. In many countries in Africa, mobile money and fintech are good examples of this. The adoption of mobile money in Sub Saharan Africa, for example, is much higher than in the US. (of worldwide registered mobile money users, SSA is 49%, vs <1% in the US) Companies in SSA that are directly in this space or that have launched products in this space are creating value that American companies couldn’t predict yet. The innovation in the mobile money sector is in Africa, and American companies would be wise to look here for the next big thing in fintech.