{"id":332,"date":"2018-03-26T08:45:34","date_gmt":"2018-03-26T06:45:34","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.jongore.com\/blog\/?p=332"},"modified":"2018-03-26T08:45:34","modified_gmt":"2018-03-26T06:45:34","slug":"mental-model-monday-falsification","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.jongore.com\/blog\/uncategorized\/mental-model-monday-falsification\/","title":{"rendered":"Mental Model Monday: Falsification"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Today we have a deadly combination for decision making, falsification and confirmation bias.<\/p>\n<p>Falsification was popularized by Sir Karl Popper, a philosopher.\u00a0 Falsification is the idea that the only way to test the validity of any theory was to prove it wrong.\u00a0 A confirmation bias is our tendency to look for evidence that confirms our instincts or models.\u00a0 Our hesitation to falsify and our love of confirming evidence is a powerful negative combination for our decision making.<\/p>\n<p>Below, from <a href=\"https:\/\/www.fs.blog\/mental-models\/\">Farnam Street:<\/a><\/p>\n<blockquote><p>What a man wishes, he also believes. Similarly, what we believe is what we choose to see. This is commonly referred to as the confirmation bias. It is a deeply ingrained mental habit, both energy-conserving and comfortable, to look for confirmations of long-held wisdom rather than violations. Yet the scientific process \u2013 including hypothesis generation, blind testing when needed, and objective statistical rigor \u2013 is designed to root out precisely the opposite, which is why it works so well when followed.<\/p>\n<p>The modern scientific enterprise operates under the principle of falsification: A method is termed scientific if it can be stated in such a way that a certain defined result would cause it to be proved false. Pseudo-knowledge and pseudo-science operate and propagate by being unfalsifiable \u2013 as with astrology, we are unable to prove them either correct or incorrect because the conditions under which they would be shown false are never stated.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Today we have a deadly combination for decision making, falsification and confirmation bias. Falsification was popularized by Sir Karl Popper, a philosopher.\u00a0 Falsification is the idea that the only way to test the validity of any theory was to prove it wrong.\u00a0 A confirmation bias is our tendency to look for evidence that confirms our [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-332","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"blocksy_meta":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.jongore.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/332","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.jongore.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.jongore.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.jongore.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.jongore.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=332"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.jongore.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/332\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":333,"href":"https:\/\/www.jongore.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/332\/revisions\/333"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.jongore.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=332"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.jongore.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=332"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.jongore.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=332"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}